Karpuska & Aybas

Event Date

Location
Blue Room
Laura Karpuska (Rochester) will present "Political Bargaining and Government Debt" from 2:30-3:50 in the Blue room.
Abstract: This paper develops a political bargaining model of government debt with an endogenous status quo. We characterize when debt emerges in equilibrium: when current allocations provide only partial insurance against political turnover, borrowing arises as a residual in-strument to secure future utility. The degree and structure of policy persistence determine both borrowing incentives and the composition of spending. Asymmetric protection distorts allocations and affects borrowing, while debt ceilings shift adjustment toward more persistent components. The results highlight how bargaining, persistence, and institutional constraints
jointly shape the level and composition of public debt.
 
Yunus Aybas (Texas A&M) will present "Model of Misrepresentation in District-Based Elections" from 4:10-5:30 in the Blue room.

Abstract: State delegations are often chosen through single-member district elections, creating a tension between respecting district majorities and reflecting the statewide electorate. First-past-the-post (FPTP) follows each district’s majority but can yield a delegation seat share far from the party’s statewide vote share. In contrast proportional representation (PR)—making a party’s seat share correspond its statewide vote share—requires departing from local majorities in some districts. We measure misrepresentation as a weighted sum of within-district misrepresentation, measured by the share of voters locally represented by their non-preferred party, and statewide misrepresentation, measured by the deviation of a party’s seat share from its statewide vote share. The misrepresentation-minimizing rule is a cutoff rule determined by the relative weight of statewide misrepresentation. As this weight rises, the cutoff continuously shifts from FPTP’s 50% to the PR cutoff that aligns the delegation’s seat share with statewide vote shares. Using a majorization-based metric of geographic concentration, we show that concentrating support reduces misrepresentation only under the misrepresentation-minimizing rule. Within this class, FPTP and PR are uniquely characterized by the absence of cross-district spillovers and by gerrymandering-proofness, respectively. Using U.S. House elections, we infer the weights that rationalize outcomes, offering a novel metric for evaluating representativeness of district boundaries and electoral reform proposals.

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