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Oscar Jorda research on probability of double dip recession widely cited in the media.

A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter by Oscar Jorda, joint work with graduate student Travis Berge, was widely cited in the media (Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, ….) following its release August 9. The research uses an improved forecasting method to forecast that the probability of another recession by June 2012 is between 0.2 and 0.5. See paper.